2024 United States presidential election

For related elections, see 2024 United States elections.

2024 United States presidential election

November 5, 2024
538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
Nominee Kamala Harris (presumptive) Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state California Florida Running mate TBD J. D. Vance
2024 electoral map, based on the results of the 2020 census
Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Voters in each state and the District of Columbia will choose a slate of electors to the U.S. Electoral College, who will then elect a president and vice president for a term of four years.

Incumbent president Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee on March 12. However, following a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and increasing age and health concerns, he withdrew on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. She secured enough delegate endorsements to become the new presumptive nominee a day later. Biden's withdrawal makes him the first eligible incumbent president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 not to stand for re-election, and the first ever to withdraw after securing enough delegates to win the nomination. Harris will presumably be the first nominee who did not participate in the primaries as a presidential candidate since Hubert Humphrey (also an incumbent vice president) that same year.

Biden's predecessor, Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election for a second, non-consecutive term, after losing to Biden in the 2020 presidential election. He became the party's presumptive nominee on March 12. In the run-up to the election, on May 30, 2024, Trump was convicted of 34 felonies related to falsifying business records, becoming the first president to be found guilty of a crime. On July 13, he was shot in an assassination attempt at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Trump was nominated during the 2024 Republican National Convention on July 15 along with his running mate, Ohio senator J. D. Vance.

The presidential election will take place at the same time as elections for the U.S. Senate, House, gubernatorial, and state legislatures. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerged as the highest-polling third-party presidential candidate since Ross Perot in the 1992 election, running as an independent. Leading campaign issues are expected to be abortion, border security and immigration, climate change, democracy, the economy, education, foreign policy, healthcare, and LGBT rights. Key swing states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The winners of this election are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, as the 47th president and 50th vice president of the United States, respectively.

Background

Procedure

Main article: United States presidential election § Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention. If no candidate wins a majority of their party's delegates' votes, or (in this election) a party's presumptive nominee drops out of the race between the primaries and the convention, a brokered convention may be held: the delegates are then "released" and are free to switch their allegiance to a different candidate.

The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.

Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election. If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.

Trump is the first president in American history to be impeached twice, and the first to run again after impeachment. Trump was first impeached by the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives in December 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress due to his attempts to coerce Ukraine to provide damaging information on Joe Biden and misinformation regarding Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections by withholding military aid. Trump's second impeachment by the House occurred on January 13, 2021, for "incitement of insurrection" owing to his role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack. As Trump was acquitted by the Senate in both cases, Trump is not barred from seeking reelection to the presidency in 2024.

The Colorado Supreme Court, a state Circuit Court in Illinois, and the Secretary of State of Maine ruled that Trump is ineligible to hold office under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution for his role in the January 6 Capitol attack, and as such, attempted to disqualify him from appearing on the ballot. These attempts were unsuccessful, as on March 4, 2024, the United States Supreme Court unanimously ruled that states cannot determine eligibility for a national election under Section 3.

Election interference

Main article: Election interference

Further information: Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, and January 6 United States Capitol attack

False claims of interference by Donald Trump

Further information: Election denial movement in the United States, Big lie § Donald Trump's lies of a stolen election, and Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election

To sow election doubt, Trump has escalated use of "rigged election" and "election interference" statements in advance of the 2024 election compared to the previous two elections—the statements described as part of a "heads I win; tails you cheated" rhetorical strategy.

Trump has made false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, and has continued denying the election results as of June 2024. Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results. The New York Times has reported that "the Republican Party and its conservative allies are engaged in an unprecedented legal campaign targeting the American voting system" by restricting voting for partisan advantage ahead of Election Day and preparing to mount "legally dubious" challenges against the certification process if Trump loses. In the lead up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party has made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants in an attempt to delegitimize the election in the event of a Trump defeat.

The claims have been made as part of a larger election denial movement in the United States. Trump has continued spreading his "Big Lie" of a stolen election and has predicted without evidence that the 2024 election would be rigged against him. Trump has baselessly claimed some version of "election interference" against him roughly once per day since announcing his 2024 candidacy. Trump has falsely accused Biden of "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him in relation to his criminal trials. Trump and several Republicans have stated they will not accept the results of the 2024 election if they believe they are "unfair."

Trump's previous comments suggesting he can "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss, his claim that he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after, his promise to use the Justice Department to go after his political enemies, his plan to use the Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy the military in Democratic cities and states, attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, continued Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Trump's baseless predictions of voter fraud in the 2024 election, and Trump's public embrace and celebration of the January 6 United States Capitol attack, have raised concerns over the state of democracy in America. Trump's political operation said that it plans to deploy more than 100,000 attorneys and volunteers to polling places across battleground states, with an "election integrity hotline" for poll watchers and voters to report alleged voting irregularities.

Interference by foreign nations

Current and former U.S. officials have stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election is likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI." On April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November." According to disinformation experts and intelligence agencies, Russia spread disinformation ahead of the 2024 election to damage Joe Biden and Democrats, boost candidates supporting isolationism, and undercut support for Ukraine aid and NATO.

Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump

Main article: Indictments against Donald Trump

Further information: Federal prosecution of Donald Trump (election obstruction case), Georgia election racketeering prosecution, Federal prosecution of Donald Trump (classified documents case), Prosecution of Donald Trump in New York, and Personal and business legal affairs of Donald Trump

Trump's four criminal indictments totaling 91 felony counts and lawsuits against Trump are expected to be an issue during the 2024 presidential campaign. On May 30, Trump was found guilty by a jury of all 34 felony counts in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump over falsifying business records for hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, to ensure her silence about a sexual encounter between them, to influence the 2016 presidential election. This makes Trump the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime in American history. Trump and many Republicans have made numerous false and misleading statements regarding Trump's criminal trials, including false claims that they are "rigged" or "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, of which there is no evidence.

Trump faces an additional 57 felony counts; four counts in a United States of America v. Donald J. Trump for his alleged role in attempting to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election and involvement in the January 6 United States Capitol attack; 10 counts in The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al. for his alleged attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 United States presidential election in Georgia; 40 counts in United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira relating to his hoarding of classified documents and alleged obstruction of efforts to retrieve them.

In addition to his indictments, on May 9, 2023, Trump was found liable by an anonymous jury for sexual abuse in E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump and ordered to pay a total of $88.3 million combined for damages and defamation. In September 2023, Trump was found guilty of financial fraud and ordered to pay a $457 million judgement currently on appeal.

According to an April 2024 Reuters/Ipsos poll, the percentage of registered voters who found Trump's charges somewhat to very serious in the federal elections case was 74%, 72% in the Georgia case, 69% in the classified documents case, and 64% in the New York hush money case. Nearly a quarter of Republican voters said they would not vote for Trump if found guilty of a felony by a jury. Following his hush money conviction, 15% of likely Republican voters and 49% of independents stated they wanted Trump to drop out, and 54% of registered voters approved of the jury's decision. Polling also found 56% of Republicans who were unchanged by the verdict, and 35% of Republicans and 18% of independents who stated they were more likely to vote for Trump.

Trump has been noted for attempting to delay his trials until after the November election. If Trump wins the election in November, then on January 20, 2025, Trump could order a new attorney general to dismiss the federal charges he is facing, prevent the state charges from taking affect through a variety of methods, and issue a presidential self-pardon.

On July 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court delivered its 6–3 decision in Trump v. United States, along ideological lines, ruling that Trump had absolute immunity for acts he committed as president within his core constitutional purview, at least presumptive immunity for official acts within the outer perimeter of his official responsibility, and no immunity for unofficial acts. Thus, Trump's sentencing date for his convictions in New York was delayed from July to September 2024, and likely the trial dates in Trump's other cases will be delayed as well, to review the applicability of the Supreme Court's decision.

Political violence

See also: Attempted assassination of Donald Trump and Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Violent and dehumanizing statements

Several scholars, lawmakers, intelligence agencies, and the public have expressed concerns about political violence surrounding the 2024 election. The fears come amidst increasing threats and acts of physical violence targeting public officials and election workers at all levels of government. Trump has increasingly embraced extremism, conspiracy theories such as Q-Anon, and far-right militia movements to a greater extent than any modern American president. Trump has espoused dehumanizing, combative, and violent rhetoric and promised retribution against his political enemies. Trump has played down but refused to rule out violence following the 2024 election, stating "it depends".

On July 13, 2024, Donald Trump, a former president of the United States and the Republican Party's presumptive nominee in the 2024 presidential election, survived an assassination attempt while addressing a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania. Trump was shot and wounded on his right ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old man from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, who fired eight rounds with an AR-15–style rifle from the roof of a building located approximately 400 feet (120 meters) from the stage. Crooks killed audience member Corey Comperatore and critically injured two other audience members. He was subsequently shot and killed by the U.S. Secret Service's counter-sniper team.

Electoral map

Effects of the 2020 census

Main article: 2020 United States redistricting cycle

This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census. If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.

Historical background

Further information: Red states and blue states

The expected partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored gray.

In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one of the major parties. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that the various swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Strategists in both parties have stated the election will likely be decided by six percent of voters in these six states.

North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%. Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, former swing states like Colorado, New Mexico and Oregon have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.

The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, performs best among Jewish and Black voters; Whites who have attended college or live in urban areas. Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party moved significantly to the left on cultural issues. Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural White voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters. Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement. The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.

Some polling for this election has indicated that Democratic strength among Hispanic, Asian, Arab, and youth voters appears to have somewhat eroded, while Republicans' durability with Whites and voters over the age of 65 also appears to be slipping. However, some political analysts have argued that these apparent trends in polling are not representative of the actual electorate, and are a polling mirage resulting from poor sampling months before the election, large numbers of voters who do not think the election will be between Biden and Trump, and heavy non-response bias.

Campaign issues

See also: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Platform, Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign § Platform, and 2024 United States elections § Issues

Abortion

Main article: Abortion in the United States

Abortion-rights protestors in Washington, D.C., on May 14, 2022, as part of the Bans Off Our Bodies protest following the leaked draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade.

Abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign. This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion. The three justices appointed by former president Donald Trump—Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and Neil Gorsuch—all voted to overturn the federal right to an abortion in Dobbs.

Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right while Republican politicians generally favor significantly restricting the legality of abortion. By April 2023, most Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it largely illegal throughout much of the United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early-stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.

Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe, but has criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans. Trump has said he will leave the issue of abortion for the states to decide, but would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute them if they have an abortion.

Border security and immigration

Main articles: Mexico–United States border crisis and United States border security concerns

Further information: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Immigration

Border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the 2024 presidential election. Polling has shown that a majority of Americans want to reduce immigration into the country and that a substantial minority are concerned about white demographic decline. In 2023 and early 2024, a surge of migrants entering the country through the United States' border with Mexico occurred. By June 2024, illegal crossings reached a three-year low following four consecutive monthly drops, which senior U.S. officials attributed to increased enforcement between the United States and Mexico, the weather, and Biden's executive order increasing asylum restrictions. In February 2024, Biden and congressional negotiators reached a bipartisan agreement on a bill to secure the border that included many conservative demands and also unlocked aid to Ukraine and Israel, but the bill was opposed by Trump who claimed it would hurt Republicans' ability to run on immigration as a campaign issue.

Donald Trump has pledged to finish the wall on the southern border if elected.

Donald Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions through workplace raids, deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border. The New York Times reported that Trump is considering "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," such as "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled." Trump has stated his intention to deport 11 million people through the construction of detention camps and using the military. Trump has made false claims of a "migrant crime wave" that are not supported by national data.

Trump's anti-immigration tone is noted to have grown harsher from his previous time as president, and has drawn criticism for using more dehumanizing rhetoric when referring to some illegal immigrants. Trump has called some immigrants "not human", "not people", and "animals". Since fall 2023, Trump has claimed that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has drawn comparisons to racial hygiene rhetoric used by white supremacists and Adolf Hitler. Trump's comments come as part of violent, dehumanizing rhetoric Trump has increasingly utilized during his campaign.

Kennedy has stated that he supports securing the border, including efforts like Operation Lone Star by states in the absence of federal action.

Climate change

Main article: Climate change in the United States

Further information: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Energy, environment, and climate change

See also: Environmental policy of the Donald Trump administration, Climate change denial, and Inflation Reduction Act

Climate change is expected to be an issue in the 2024 presidential election. In 2023, the United States saw a record in crude oil production with over 13.2 million barrels of crude per day beating the 13 million barrels per day produced at the peak of Trump's presidency. America also dealt with supply shocks caused by the 2021–2024 global energy crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Trump has ridiculed the idea of man-made climate change and repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill", has promised to increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world. Trump has promised to roll back electric vehicle initiatives, proposed leaving the Paris Climate Accords, and rescinding several environmental regulations. Trump has stated his intention to roll back parts of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which was the largest investment in addressing climate change and clean energy in US history.

Democracy

Main articles: Democratic backsliding in the United States, Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, and Election denial movement in the United States

See also: Project 2025, Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Authoritarian and antidemocratic statements, Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Violent and dehumanizing statements, Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Expansion of executive and presidential power, and Indictments against Donald Trump

The election will come as the first presidential election following Trump's former attempts to overturn the 2020 election and January 6 United States Capitol attack. It also comes amidst Trump's federal indictment for attempting to overturn the 2020 election and involvement in the attack and racketeering charges for attempting to overturn Joe Biden's victory in the state of Georgia.

Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.

Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy. Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Some Republicans are concerned that Trump's former impeachment and four criminal indictments are attempts to influence the election and keep him from office. However, there is no evidence that Trump's criminal trials are "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.

Donald Trump's 2024 campaign has been criticized by the media for making increasingly violent and authoritarian statements, which some believe the Trump campaign is intentionally leaning into. Trump's platform calls for the vast expansion of presidential powers and the executive branch over every part of the federal government. Trump has called for stripping employment protections for thousands of career civil service employees and replacing them with political loyalists if deemed an 'obstacle to his agenda' within federal agencies, the United States Intelligence Community, State Department, and Department of Defense.

Trump's campaign has been noted for using increasingly dehumanizing and violent rhetoric against his political enemies. Trump has promised to pardon those charged for their involvement in the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack and has called those charged "hostages" and "great, great patriots." Trump has played down but not ruled out violence after the 2024 election if he does not win, stating, "it depends."

Speaking on Erin Burnett OutFront, Kennedy said that President Biden poses a bigger threat to democracy than Donald Trump. Trump has claimed that Joe Biden is the "destroyer" and real threat to democracy, and has repeated false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him, of which there has been no evidence. Trump's claims have been made as part of a larger election denial movement conspiracy theory in the United States.

Economic issues

Main article: Economy of the United States

Further information: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Economy and trade, and U.S. federal government response to the COVID-19 pandemic

The inflation rate, United States and eurozone, January 2018 to March 2024. Inflation notably increased during the 2021–2023 inflation surge.

Voters consistently cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election. A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply-chain crisis, which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities. Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents.

Trump has proposed further individual and corporate tax cuts beyond his prior 2017 tax cuts. Trump has argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation. Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff of 10% on all imports, with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices. Trump has called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the U.S. and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States. The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a massive trade war. Trump's trade policies have been described as protectionist, neomercantilist or autarkist.

Education

Main article: Education in the United States

Further information: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Education, 2020s controversies around critical race theory, and Parental rights movement

Republican candidates see education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment. Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history. Trump has pledged to terminate the Department of Education, claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists."

Foreign policy

Main article: Foreign policy of the United States

Further information: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Foreign policy

Biden signing Executive Order 14065 in February 2022 in response to Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine. The United States has given billions worth of military aid to Ukraine following the Russian invasion of the country in 2022.

The ongoing Israel–Hamas war and Russian invasion of Ukraine are expected to be significant issues of the election.

Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its isolationist "America First" foreign policy agenda, and has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO's purpose and mission, shifting the nation's defense burdens from Europe towards Asia. Trump has stated he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to countries that did not contribute enough to NATO. Trump has said he would cut off aid to Ukraine quickly if reelected. Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea, and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.

Kennedy condemned Hamas's attacks on Israeli civilians and declared support for aid to Israel.

Israel-Hamas war views

Further information: Israel–Hamas war protests in the United States and Israel–Hamas war protest vote movements

Polling has indicated a significant divide between government policy on the Israel–Hamas war and the views of the general public. During the election, several pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian protests occurred in the United States. Before dropping out, Biden voiced support for the right to protest but criticized when they became violent or antisemitic. Trump has stated he would shut down Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators, and "set the movement back 25 or 30 years."

Healthcare issues

Further information: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § Social services and healthcare

The issue of healthcare and drug policy, including whether the United States should shift to a universal healthcare system, and the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election.

Trump has made repealing the Affordable Care Act a key issue of the 2024 election. During an interview on March 11, 2024, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs. During the Republican primary, Trump attacked his opponents by suggesting they would cut entitlement benefits.

Kennedy has been a prominent anti-vaccine advocate, but according to Deseret News, he has attempted to moderate his anti-vaccine position before the election, stating that he is not against all vaccines. West is running on a platform of Medicare-for-all.

LGBT rights

Main articles: LGBT rights in the United States and Transgender rights in the United States

Further information: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign § LGBT rights and Civil Rights, and 2020s anti-LGBT movement in the United States

Students in Des Moines protesting an anti-trans law signed by Republican Governor Kim Reynolds in 2022

In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that Democrats say restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people. Trump has promised a rollback on Democratic-supported policies surrounding transgender individuals. Trump stated he will rescind Biden's Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities. Trump has stated he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left." Trump has pledged "severe consequences" for teachers who "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously withdrew Title IX provisions that allowed transgender youth to have access to the bathrooms of their choice, and he attempted to roll-back several transgender-related policies in the Affordable Care Act.

Democratic Party

Main articles: 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries and 2024 Democratic Party presidential candidates

The popular vote results of the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries

  Joe Biden

  Jason Palmer

  No popular vote held

Incumbent Joe Biden initially ran for re-election before dropping out in July 2024.

On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate. Republicans intensified their criticism of Harris after Biden declared his intention to run for office. During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election, and Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and former Representative Joe Cunningham (all Democrats), publicly urged Biden not to run.

In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many were concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would have been 86 at the end of his second term. According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans — including 51 percent of Democrats — believed Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's approval rating was 41 percent, while 55 percent disapproved. There was also speculation that Biden might face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction. After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.

Author Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for re-election. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination. On October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate. Representative Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26. Venture capitalist Jason Palmer announced his campaign on October 22.

Williamson announced her initial withdrawal on February 7, 2024, though she resumed her campaign a few weeks later. On March 6, 2024, Philips suspended his campaign after failing to win any primaries the previous night on Super Tuesday, followed by Williamson on June 11. Despite being perceived as a minor candidate, Palmer won the American Samoa caucuses, making him the first candidate to win a contested primary against an incumbent president since Ted Kennedy in 1980. He won no other contests and suspended his candidacy on May 15, 2024. On March 12, 2024, Biden obtained a majority of delegates, officially becoming the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. Williamson re-entered the presidential race on July 2 and called for an open convention.

Following a widely-panned debate performance against Donald Trump on June 27, 2024 and a COVID-19 diagnosis in mid-July, on July 21, 2024, Biden announced that he would pull out of the presidential race, allowing the Democratic Party to choose a new candidate. He endorsed incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris for the presidential nomination. Soon after, Harris announced that she was running for the 2024 Democratic nomination. By the end of the following day, July 22, Harris secured enough delegate endorsements to become the Democratic Party's new presumptive nominee. The party's nominee will be officially chosen at the Democratic National Convention, scheduled for August 19 to 22.

Democratic presumptive nominee

Main article: Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign

2024 Democratic Party ticket
Kamala Harris	TBA
for President	for Vice President
49th Vice President of the United States (2021–present)	TBA

Republican Party

Main articles: 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries and 2024 Republican Party presidential candidates

Results of the 2024 Republican presidential primaries

  Nikki Haley

  Donald Trump

Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892. Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day. Trump was considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022. Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.

In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022. On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy. Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States. At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.

Following the Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates. Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum. On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign. Trump became the only remaining major candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.

On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.

On July 15, 2024, the first day of the Republican National Convention, Trump officially announced that Senator J. D. Vance would be his running mate. Trump had survived an assassination attempt days earlier with a gunshot wound to the ear.

On July 18, 2024, Trump accepted the nomination from the Republican National Convention to become the Republican presidential nominee. This was the third consecutive election in which he was the Republican nominee.

Republican nominee

Main article: Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign

2024 Republican Party ticket
Donald Trump	J. D. Vance
for President	for Vice President
45th President of the United States (2017–2021)	U.S. senator from Ohio (2023–present)

Third-party and independent candidates

Main article: Third-party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election

Third-party and independent candidates have also announced presidential runs. They include Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Cornel West. Centrist political organization No Labels intended to field a third-party "unity ticket", before abandoning their efforts in April 2024. Some established third parties, such as the American Solidarity Party, the Prohibition Party, the Constitution Party, the Libertarian Party and the Party for Socialism and Liberation have announced presidential nominees, while the Green Party has begun their primaries. While independent/third-party candidates often do better in opinion polls than actual election performance, third-party candidates, as of April 2024, have the strongest showing in polls since Ross Perot's high poll numbers in the 1990s.

Notable party nominations

The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.

With majority ballot access

Libertarian Party

Main articles: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries and Chase Oliver 2024 presidential campaign

Chase Oliver was chosen by the Libertarian Party as its presidential nominee on May 26, 2024, at the 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Oliver was the party's candidate in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia. As of May 2024, the party has ballot access in at least 37 states with a total of 380 electoral votes.

2024 Libertarian Party ticket
Chase Oliver	Mike ter Maat
for President	for Vice President
Sales account executive from Georgia	Economist from Virginia

Green Party

Main articles: 2024 Green Party presidential primaries and Jill Stein 2024 presidential campaign

Jill Stein announced on May 26, 2024, that her campaign had accrued enough delegates to secure the Green Party nomination and thus became the presumptive nominee. Stein was also the party's candidate in 2012 and 2016. Stein is a physician and a former member of the Lexington Town Meeting. No running mate has yet been announced, with the 2024 Green National Convention to take place from August 15 to 18, 2024. As of June 2024, Stein has ballot access both on Green Party and Independent ballot lines in at least 22 states with a total of 273 electoral votes.

2024 Green Party ticket
Jill Stein	TBA
for President	for Vice President
Physician from Massachusetts	TBA

With partial ballot access

These parties have ballot access in some states, but not enough to get 270 votes to win the presidency, without running a write-in campaign.

• American Solidarity Party: Peter Sonski, Connecticut school board member
• Approval Voting Party: Blake Huber, nominee for president in 2020
• Constitution Party: Randall Terry, anti-abortion activist and perennial candidate
• Green Party of Alaska: Jasmine Sherman, nonprofit executive and activist
• Independent American Party: Joel Skousen, survivalist and consultant
• Prohibition Party: Michael Wood, businessman
• Party for Socialism and Liberation: Claudia De la Cruz, political activist

Without ballot access

• Legal Marijuana Now Party: Dennis Schuller, chairman of the Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now! Party
• Pirate Party: Vermin Supreme, performance artist and perennial candidate
• Socialist Party USA: Bill Stodden, nonprofit executive
• Socialist Equality Party: Joseph Kishore, writer and SEP nominee in 2020
• Socialist Workers Party: Rachele Fruit, hotel worker and trade unionist
• Transhumanist Party: Tom Ross, technology and political activist
• Unity Party of America: Paul Noel Fiorino, perennial candidate

Notable declared candidates

The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

Independents

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Main article: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 2024 presidential campaign

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., after initially running in the Democratic primary, became an independent candidate in October 2023. A member of the Kennedy family, he is an environmental lawyer who promotes conspiracy theories. He has drawn support among independent and anti-establishment voters disillusioned with mainstream American political parties. His polling, as of November 2023, was at the highest levels for a candidate outside the two major parties since 1992. A member of the Kennedy family, Kennedy is a son of U.S. Attorney General and Senator Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of U.S. President John F. Kennedy and Senator Ted Kennedy. On March 26, 2024, Kennedy announced Nicole Shanahan, an attorney from California, as his running mate.

0px 2024 independent ticket (with the "We The People" party in some states)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	Nicole Shanahan
for President	for Vice President
Environmental lawyer from California	Attorney and technologist from California

Cornel West

Main article: Cornel West 2024 presidential campaign

Cornel West is a socialist activist and intellectual who announced a campaign as an independent after initially announcing a run as a People's Party and later a Green Party candidate. His running mate is Melina Abdullah, an academic and civic leader from California.

0px 2024 independent ticket (with the "Justice for All" party in some states)
Cornel West	Melina Abdullah
for President	for Vice President
Academic and activist from California	Academic and civic leader from California

Other independent candidates

• Shiva Ayyadurai, engineer, entrepreneur, and anti-vaccine activist; candidate for U.S. Senate from Massachusetts in 2018 and 2020
• Johnny Buss, part-owner and vice president of strategic development of the Los Angeles Lakers
• Joseph "Afroman" Foreman, rapper
• Taylor Marshall, podcaster and author

Withdrawn candidates

The following notable individual(s) announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:

• Kanye West, rapper, candidate for president in 2020

Timeline

Further information: Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election

Opinion polling and forecasts

Opinion polling aggregation

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

Electoral College forecasts

Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:

• "tossup": no advantage
• "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
• "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
• "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
• "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by forecasters The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, CNalysis, Decision Desk HQ, and CNN are omitted for brevity.

FiveThirtyEight suspended their forecast after President Biden dropped out of the race. The FivethirtyEight ratings in the table show hypothetical forecasts for if Biden was still in the race.

State	EVs	PVI	2020 result	2020 margin	IE May 8, 2024	Cook July 9, 2024	CNalysis July 19, 2024	Sabato July 23, 2024	CNN January 31, 2024	DDHQ July 9, 2024	538 July 19, 2024	Economist July 18, 2024
Alaska	3	R+8	52.8% R	10.06%	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Solid R
Arizona	11	R+2	49.4% D	0.31%	Tossup	Lean R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R (flip)	Lean R (flip)
Colorado	10	D+4	55.4% D	13.50%	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
Florida	30	R+3	51.2% R	3.36%	Lean R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R
Georgia	16	R+3	49.5% D	0.24%	Tossup	Lean R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R (flip)
Iowa	6	R+6	53.1% R	8.20%	Likely R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Solid R
Maine	2	D+2	53.1% D	9.07%	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Solid D	Lean D	Likely D	Tossup
ME–02	1	R+6	52.3% R	7.44%	Lean R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Michigan	15	R+1	50.6% D	2.78%	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R (flip)
Minnesota	10	D+1	52.4% D	7.11%	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tossup
NE–02	1	EVEN	52.0% D	6.50%	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Tossup
Nevada	6	R+1	50.1% D	2.39%	Tossup	Lean R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Tossup	Lean R (flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R (flip)
New Hampshire	4	D+1	52.7% D	7.35%	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tossup
New Jersey	14	D+6	57.3% D	15.94%	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
New Mexico	5	D+3	54.3% D	10.79%	Solid D	Likely D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
North Carolina	16	R+3	49.9% R	1.35%	Tilt R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R
Ohio	17	R+6	53.3% R	8.03%	Likely R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Solid R
Oregon	8	D+6	56.4% D	16.08%	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Pennsylvania	19	R+2	50.0% D	1.16%	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R (flip)
Texas	40	R+5	52.1% R	5.58%	Likely R	Likely R	Very Likely R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Virginia	13	D+3	54.1% D	10.11%	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tossup
Wisconsin	10	R+2	49.5% D	0.63%	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R (flip)
Overall					D – 226 R – 235 77 tossups	D – 226 R – 268 44 tossups	D – 226 R – 268 44 tossups	D – 226 R – 251 61 tossups	D – 225 R – 272 41 tossups	D – 226 R – 235 77 tossups	D – 226 R – 246 66 tossups	D – 196 R – 312 30 tossups

Debates

Main article: 2024 United States presidential debates

In April 2022, the Republican National Committee voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD). In May 2024, the Biden campaign proposed hosting two debates outside of the CPD timetable and refusing to participate in CPD-hosted debates. Biden and Trump agreed to debates on CNN on June 27 and ABC News on September 10.

June 27

CNN hosted the first major debate of the election on June 27, with 51 million viewers watching. Media outlets characterized Biden's debate performance as a "disaster". Some pundits noted that he frequently lost his train of thought and gave meandering, confused answers.

G. Elliott Morris and Kaleigh Rogers of ABC News' 538 argued that Biden had failed to reassure voters that he was capable of serving as president for another four years. After the debate, elected officials, party strategists, and fundraisers conversed about replacing Biden as the party's candidate, including whether prominent Democrats should make a public statement asking him to step aside. Biden stated that he would not be dropping out. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton reiterated their support for Biden following the debate. The debate performance ultimately led to a series of events that resulted in Biden withdrawing his bid for re-election on July 21.

September 10

The second presidential debate is scheduled to be held on September 10 and will be hosted by ABC News.

See also

• 2024 United States elections
  • 2024 United States gubernatorial elections
  • 2024 United States House of Representatives elections
  • 2024 United States Senate elections
• Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election
• Republican Party efforts to disrupt the 2024 United States presidential election